Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
